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Abstract Nongravitational accelerations in the absence of observed activity have recently been identified on near-Earth objects (NEOs), opening the question of the prevalence of anisotropic mass loss in the near-Earth environment. Motivated by the necessity of nongravitational accelerations to identify 2010 VL₆₅and 2021 UA₁₂as a single object, we investigate the problem of linking separate apparitions in the presence of nongravitational perturbations. We find that nongravitational accelerations on the order of 1 × 10^–9au day⁻²can lead to a change in plane-of-sky positions of ∼1 × 10³arcsec between apparitions. Moreover, we inject synthetic tracklets of hypothetical nongravitationally accelerating NEOs into the Minor Planet Center orbit identification algorithms. We find that at large nongravitational accelerations (∣A_i∣ ≥ 1 × 10⁻⁸au day⁻²) these algorithms fail to link a significant fraction of these tracklets. We further show that if orbits can be determined for both apparitions, the tracklets will be linked regardless of nongravitational accelerations, although they may be linked to multiple objects. In order to aid in the identification and linkage of nongravitationally accelerating objects, we propose and test a new methodology to search for unlinked pairs. When applied to the current census of NEOs, we recover the previously identified case but identify no new linkages. We conclude that current linking algorithms are generally robust to nongravitational accelerations, but objects with large nongravitational accelerations may potentially be missed. While current algorithms are well-positioned for the anticipated increase in the census population from future survey missions, it may be possible to find objects with large nongravitational accelerations hidden in isolated tracklet pairs. 

Abstract Using Fisher information matrices, we forecast the uncertaintiesσ_Mon the measurement of a “Planet X” at heliocentric distanced_Xvia its tidal gravitational field’s action on the known planets. Using planetary measurements currently in hand, including ranging from the Juno, Cassini, and Mars-orbiting spacecraft, we forecast a median uncertainty (over all sky positions) of ${\sigma }_M=0.22M_{\oplus }{\left(d_x/400\mathrm{au}\right)}^3.$A 5σdetection of a 5M_⊕Planet X atd_X= 400 au should be possible over the full sky but over only 5% of the sky atd_X= 800 au. The gravity of an undiscovered Earth- or Mars-mass object should be detectable over 90% of the sky to a distance of 260 or 120 au, respectively. Upcoming Mars ranging improves these limits only slightly. We also investigate the power of high-precision astrometry of ≈8000 Jovian Trojans over the 2023–2035 period from the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We find that the dominant systematic errors in optical Trojan astrometry (photocenter motion, nongravitational forces, and differential chromatic refraction) can be solved internally with minimal loss of information. The Trojan data allow cross-checks with Juno/Cassini/Mars ranging, but do not significantly improve the best achievableσ_Mvalues until they are ≳10× more accurate than expected from LSST. The ultimate limiting factor in searches for a Planet X tidal field is confusion with the tidal field created by the fluctuating quadrupole moment of the Kuiper Belt as its members orbit. This background will not, however, become the dominant source of uncertainty until the data get substantially better than they are today. 

Abstract We present the first set of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) observed on multiple nights in data taken from the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project. Of these 110 TNOs, 105 do not coincide with previously known TNOs and appear to be new discoveries. Each individual detection for our objects resulted from a digital tracking search at TNO rates of motion, using two-to-four-hour exposure sets, and the detections were subsequently linked across multiple observing seasons. This procedure allows us to find objects with magnitudesm_VR≈ 26. The object discovery processing also included a comprehensive population of objects injected into the images, with a recovery and linking rate of at least 94%. The final orbits were obtained using a specialized orbit-fitting procedure that accounts for the positional errors derived from the digital tracking procedure. Our results include robust orbits and magnitudes for classical TNOs with absolute magnitudesH∼ 10, as well as a dynamically detached object found at 76 au (semimajor axisa≈ 77 au). We find a disagreement between our population of classical TNOs and the CFEPS-L7 three-component model for the Kuiper Belt. 

Abstract We present the occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define η ⊕ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R ⊕ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 and 6300 K. We find that η ⊕ for the conservative HZ is between (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between and planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates between using Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is ∼6 pc away and there are ∼4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.